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What is closing line value?

Closing line value explained in plain English: a direct definition, a worked example, the formula and related terms, with sources.

Last updated: · Written and reviewed by Ken Lin

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Quick answer

Closing line value: Closing line value measures how the price you took compares with the final price before the event starts; consistently getting better prices than the close is a widely used sign of skill.

Also called: beating the close

Explained, with an example

The closing line is the last price before kickoff, after the market has absorbed the available information, so it is treated as the best public estimate of the true probability [1]. A simple measure is odds taken / fair closing odds − 1: taking 2.10 when the no-vig close is 2.00 gives +5% CLV. Odds-API.io's CLV tutorial notes that you must log both your price and the fair price at that moment, because neither can be recovered later [1].

Formula

CLV = odds taken / fair closing odds − 1

Try it: tools and tutorials

Frequently asked questions

What is closing line value?

Closing line value measures how the price you took compares with the final price before the event starts; consistently getting better prices than the close is a widely used sign of skill.

About this guide

Pred-Data publishes independent, source-linked explainers about prediction markets and the AI tools used around them. Every factual claim on this page links to a primary or reputable secondary source, checked on the date shown above. We do not run a trading venue, take bets, or give personal advice.

Author: Ken Lin · Corrections: if you spot an error, we review it and date-stamp the fix.

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Sources

  1. Value Bets API: Track Closing Line Value in Python — Odds-API.io blog, accessed 2 Nov 2026