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What is a sure bet?

Sure bet explained in plain English: a direct definition, a worked example and related terms, with sources.

Last updated: · Written and reviewed by Ken Lin

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Quick answer

Sure bet: “Sure bet” is industry slang for an arbitrage position: the combination of best prices across bookmakers whose implied probabilities sum to less than 100%.

Also called: arb, risk-free bet (misleading)

Explained, with an example

The name overstates it. The return is only locked in if every leg is placed at the quoted price and every bookmaker honours the bet; prices move within seconds, stakes can be capped (Odds-API.io returns maxStake where known) and void rules differ between operators [1] [2]. Treat “sure” as “calculated at the quoted prices”, not guaranteed.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a sure bet?

“Sure bet” is industry slang for an arbitrage position: the combination of best prices across bookmakers whose implied probabilities sum to less than 100%.

About this guide

Pred-Data publishes independent, source-linked explainers about prediction markets and the AI tools used around them. Every factual claim on this page links to a primary or reputable secondary source, checked on the date shown above. We do not run a trading venue, take bets, or give personal advice.

Author: Ken Lin · Corrections: if you spot an error, we review it and date-stamp the fix.

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Sources

  1. Arbitrage Bets guide (formula, response format, limitations) — Odds-API.io docs, accessed 2 Nov 2026
  2. What Is Arbitrage Betting? Definition & Example — Odds-API.io glossary, accessed 2 Nov 2026